Resilience Assessment of Social-Ecological Systems in MENA Region: An Application of Tri-Capital Framework in Jordan, Tunisia & Morocco

Abstract

Drylands of MENA regions have diverse agricultural production systems that are embedded under more global social-ecological systems (SESs). In order to meet population needs, food production intensification schemes in this area engender social and environmental costs because of the vulnerability of these systems, which orients current research to promoting sustainable intensification. Considering the complexity, vulnerability and diversity of systems, by this work, we propose, at a first level, a typology of social-ecological systems’ resilience profiles in MENA region, using an explanatory set of variables defining rural livelihoods and agricultural systems on one hand, as well as resilience determinants; buffer capacity, self-organization and capacity for learning, on the other hand. Consequently, we proceed to measure and scale precariousness (Pr) indicator, which represents the distance to collapse point, for the different social-ecological systems resulting from the typology using the Tri-capital Framework method which consists of developing and scoring composite indicators. By tri-capital, we relate to economic capital (EC), social capital (SC) and natural capital (NC). For data analysis; factor analysis, typology and indicators scoring, we used SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences). The study covers three countries: Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco; where data were collected by ICARDA in 2014 within Consortium Research Program on Livestock (CRP1.1). The results highlighted the diversity of and differences, or similarities, between production systems in the same country and between countries. The Pr indicator values start from zero to 5.3; while householders with Pr between zero and 3.50 are considered weakly resilient. Therefore, if the Pr indictor is ranged between 3.50 and 4.20, householders are considered moderately resilient and if the score is between 4.20 and 5.28, they are strongly resilient. It is revealed that a moderate resilience is engendered by balanced contributions of natural, economic and social capital which highlights the importance of a holistic approach in promoting sustainable intensification and making rural development policies.